UI Paper

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Everyday insecurities: Expanding the security debate in Sweden

Research There has been a shift in the European security landscape in the past decade, as military security questions have taken an increasingly important place in the societal debate around security. This paper focuses on how military security risks marginalizing the everyday threats and insecurities faced by individuals to demonstrate how a gender analysis can introduce a new perspective to the public debate on security in Sweden.

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Global Commons at Risk? Exploring Risks and Dilemmas of Deep-Sea Mining

Research With growing global demand for minerals, deep-sea mining has gained significant interest in the recent years. While the practise has not been deployed at large scale yet, recent time pressure in the International Seabed Authority can make commercial deep-sea mining a reality within just two years. Mining the seafloor comes with a range of risks and uncertainties, why stakeholders are divided on whether or how to proceed. Moreover, seafloor areas deemed especially resource rich lie outside national jurisdiction, bringing even more complex considerations to the issue. This paper explores the risks and dilemmas of deep-sea mining from the three perspectives of environmental harm, equity and interstate tensions. In doing so, the paper contributes to an understanding of the complex trade-offs governing new types of climate change technologies and illustrates the need for more robust governance of global commons.

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Advocating for further integration: Europarties in the 2024 European Parliament elections

Research For decades, major Europarties like the EPP, PES, and ALDE have advocated increased EU integration, pushing for democratic and institutional strengthening. However, this paper, which features analysis of their 2024 election manifestos reveals, few concrete governance reform proposals. This may well indicate internal divisions. The Greens, though, standout with their federalist agenda. The paper explores factors influencing Europarties' stances and questions the commitment of national member parties. When national and EU-level campaigns diverge, it weakens Europarties' cohesion and influence.

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Could the G7 climate club work? Lessons learned from climate coalitions

Research The international climate negotiations are increasingly focusing on implementing the Paris Agreement and driving up ambition. At COP27 in Egypt a Mitigation Work Programme will be negotiated with the aim to close the emissions gap. At the same time, climate initiatives and coalitions have proliferated outside the UNFCCC in recent years. This year the G7 also decided to establish a climate club to accelerate climate action. This UI paper examines some lessons learned from climate coalitions and the implications of these for international climate cooperation in general, and the establishment of a climate club in particular.

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Local Initiatives: Factors in and Lessons for Sustainable Development

Research This paper reviews scholarly literature on local initiatives for sustainable development, exploring how such initiatives succeed and become part of a wider societal transformation towards sustainability. Five factors are highlighted: capacity and learning; flexibility and profitability; solidarity and autonomy, support and access, and networks. Drawing on these factors the paper emphasizes the importance of understanding the linkages between local initiatives and the outside world; that knowledge and different types of knowledge matter; and, that a holistic approach to sustainable development is of importance.

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A Fatigued State: Exploring the Fragilities of the Afghan State

Research This paper aims to study in what sense, and to what extent, Afghanistan is a fragile state. It sheds light on different areas of the Afghan state and broadens the concept of state fragility, highlighting that there are endless differences both between and within fragile states.

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Algeria’s Hirak Movement: A Second National Liberation?

Research This UI paper explores Algeria’s protest movement Hirak, which shook the Algerian state to its core in 2019. Building on interviews with 12 individual experts, activists and journalists engaged with the movement, it studies the mobilization, actors, and trajectories of the Hirak. The author provides policy recommendations for European stakeholders.

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A Shared Understanding of India’s Climate Policy? Insights from a Survey of Indian Climate Experts

Forskning This report investigates the shared understanding of India’s climate policy among the Indian climate expert community. It explores the scope of India's climate diplomacy and the implications for Sweden and the EU. The author provides policy recommendations relevant to Swedish, European, and Indian stakeholders.

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Sweden, the European Defence Fund and Permanent Structured Cooperation: Challenges Ahead for Third Party Participation

Forskning This UI Paper aims to study the negotiations on third-party access to EU defence funding and initiatives, the Swedish position and its industry’s perception of the way forward under the new conditions.

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Human Rights and Climate Change: Are States Violating the Right to Life by Not Cutting Emissions?

Research This paper aims to study the new phenomenon of climate litigation and analyses the implications for future international human rights law and legal precedent.

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Addressing Atrocity in Syria: New Challenges for Transitional Justice

Research By studying the war in Syria, this paper aim to contribute to the wider discussion on the role of transitional justice in societies transitioning from conflict, and specifically regarding how to understand and address continuities of violence across war and peace.

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Circles of EU-India Engagement: How Member States Cooperate with India on Global Issues

Research Both the EU institutions and the member states have made a strategic choice: to deepen their relationships with India. This paper details how EU member states engage with India on global issues and India’s response.

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What Do Swedes Think about China? Insights from an Extensive Survey of Swedish Public Opinion of China

Research Two-thirds of Swedes hold negative views of China while close to 80 percent distrust the country. These are the results of the comprehensive European public opinion survey that is presented in this report. Of the 13 European countries included in the survey, China’s public image is the most negative in Sweden.

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Tracing Intersections of COVID-19: Gender, Water and Armed Conflicts

Research In disease outbreaks such as COVID-19, the situation is alarming for women and girls in fragile and conflict-affected states experiencing water scarcity. This paper highlights the gendered consequences of disease outbreaks in such states globally and explores how armed non-state actors are responding to COVID-19 in the Middle East and North Africa (MENA) region

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Anatomy of the Iranian Economy

Research This paper examines the current economic picture to provide insights on the basic foundations of Iran’s economy. It sheds light on the key developments of recent decades in order to identify the main pillars on which economic performance relies, and assesses possible future trends.

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How to Progress Ukraine’s Western Integration as a Prelude to Accession to the EU and NATO

Research As the European Union (EU) and the North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO), and their member states become increasingly absorbed by internal challenges, Ukraine needs to seek new paths to increase security, resilience and growth before its accession to the West’s two major multilateral organizations. An alternative way to reduce Ukraine’s current institutional isolation would be to develop more intense bilateral relations with its friendly states across the globe, notably the United States, argues Klimkin and Umland.

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Reaching Climate Security - How Climate Change Moved up the Security Council Agenda

Research Failure to combat climate change tops current rankings of global security risks, both in terms of likelihood and impact. How is the most powerful UN body, the Security Council, handling climate related security risks? This paper presents an overview of the history, current status and future outlooks of climate change as an issue for the Security Council.

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Higher Fences and Wider Nets? Global Trends in Bordering Policies

Research Why are borders becoming harder and wider and what are the unintended consequences of heightened border security? This paper dissects and analyses the trends in global border policies.

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What to Make of the Huawei Debate? 5G Network Security and Technology Dependency in Europe

Research Should Chinese tech giant Huawei be allowed to participate in the build-out of Europe’s mobile critical infrastructure, better known as 5G? This paper engages with this controversial question asking whether excluding Huawei is effective and what alternatives are available.

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Diplomacy in a Changing World Order: The Role of Strategic Partnerships

Research What does the emergence of an increasing number of so-called “strategic partnerships” mean for the future world order? This paper explores this question through a study of three global actors: China, the USA and the EU. Michalski, A. (2019) Diplomacy in a Changing World Order: The Role of Strategic Partnerships. UI Paper no. 10, September 2019.

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The Partnership Shift: Analysing the European Union’s Strategic Engagement with India

Research The European Union’s new strategy on India – and India’s positive response to it –provide strong impetus for greater bilateral engagement. This paper analyses opportunities and challenges for the EU-India relationship, as it enters a new more strategic phase. Aspengren, H. C. & Nordenstam, A. (2019) The Partnership Shift: Analysing the European Union’s Strategic Engagement with India. UI Paper no. 9, July 2019.

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Challenges to the Post-2003 Political Order in Iraq

Research This paper argues that Iraq’s post-2003 identity-based political structure is not the only useful tool for understanding domestic political trends and the nature of the conflict in that country. Iraqis have lived for over 16 years with the same political parties, political elite and political system, marred by corruption, and many are beginning to demand change. Mansour, R. (2019) Challenges to the Post-2003 Political Order in Iraq. UI Paper no. 8, July 2019.

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From Cold War to Civil War: 75 Years of Russian-Syrian Relations

Research This paper seeks to focus on the Russian-Syrian relationship through a largely chronological description of its evolution up to the present day, with additional thematically organised material on Russia’s current role in Syria. Lund, A. (2019) From Cold War to Civil War: 75 Years of Russian-Syrian Relations. UI Paper No. 7, May 2019.

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The EU as a Global Actor: A new conceptualisation four decades after ‘actorness’

Research In this paper, the authors build a holistic model for understanding and predicting changes in the EU’s ‘actor capacity’, in the generalising spirit of the original actorness approach with a new set of dynamic and integrated components that emphasize a previously missing variable: EU performance. Rhinard, M. & Sjöstedt, G. (2019) The EU as a Global Actor: A new conceptualisation four decades after ‘actorness’. UI Paper No. 6, May 2019.

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Peace in Yemen

Research This paper examines the prospects for peace in Yemen. It identifies the main challenges and opportunities, and evaluates their potential impact and likelihood of realisation. It gives an overview of the agendas of the warring sides and the history of past negotiations. It also covers other important issues, such as the war economy, federalism and the role of the international community.Al-Kahwati, A. (2019) Peace in Yemen. UI Paper No. 5, May 2019.

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Myanmar in transition: China, conflict, and ceasefire economies in Kachin State

Research This paper describes how the Myanmar government’s attempts to root out discontent by economic means paradoxically led to the emergence of a vocal civil society able to disrupt and contest not only the state, but also its powerful neighbour, China. Hedström, J. (2019) Myanmar in transition: China, conflict, and ceasefire economies in Kachin State. UI Paper no. 4, April 2019.

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Facing the “new normal”: The strong and enduring Sino-Russian relationship and its implications for Europe

Research This report examines the development and main characteristics of the current Sino-Russian relationship and its implications for Europe.

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Russia in the Middle East

Research This UI Paper traces Moscow’s role in the Middle East and North Africa through Soviet times to the present day.

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Marketization in North Korea: Scenarios for economic, political and social change

Research This UI paper explores the spread of markets in North Korea and analyzes the potential for marketization to bring about change in the authoritarian state. Hanssen, U. & Song, J-W. (2019) Marketization in North Korea: Scenarios for economic, political and social change, UI Paper no. 1, January 2019.

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Working in the Same Direction? Civil Protection Cooperation in the Baltic Sea Region

Research In this report, the authors map and assess the capacity of the institutional landscape of the Baltic Sea Region (BSR) for transboundary crisis management cooperation.

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Marketplace or military bastion? Kaliningrad between Brussels and Moscow

Research The aim of this publication is not only to explain why the Kaliningrad region has in recent years become a military hotspot in the Baltic Sea region but also to go deeper and elucidate the internal situation, the economic and foreign relations, not least in the EU context. The idea of this publication came up in connection with a roundtable on Kaliningrad at the 17th Aleksanteri Conference in Helsinki on 25 October 2017. Oldberg, I. (Ed.) (2018) Marketplace or military bastion? Kaliningrad between Brussels and Moscow, UI Paper no. 3, August 2018.

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A New Cold War?

Research In this paper the author, Michael W. Doyle, director of the Columbia Global Policy Initiative, Columbia University, describes the formation of a new geopolitical world order and what that might mean for promoting human rights and national security. Doyle, M. W. (2018) A New Cold War?, UI Paper no. 2, June 2018.

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Order, integration and the development of European security and defence

Research Key uncertainties and future scenarios

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Sweden’s approach to China’s Belt and Road Initiative

Research This UI Paper outlines how China has approached the Belt and Road Initiative (BRI) with Sweden, how Sweden has responded and the perceptions of major Swedish stakeholders.

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Is Russia a status quo power?

Research The UI Paper: Is Russia a status quo power? examines whether Russian foreign policy has preserved status quo in selected regions in the world, or rather has revised the existing order. It is concluded that thanks to growing nationalism, coupled with stronger economy and military force, Russia since the late 2000s became more revisionist, especially vis-à-vis the post-Soviet states and Ukraine in particular.

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Ett förändrat säkerhetspolitiskt perspektiv

Forskning UI Paper "Ett förändrat säkerhetspolitiskt perspektiv; USA:s syn på Östersjöområdet, Sverige och Finland" analyserar säkerhetspolitiska perspektiv och USA:s militära och politiska syn på Östersjöområdet, med särskilt fokus på Sverige och Finland.

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NATO, the U.S. and Baltic Sea Security

Research The UI Paper "Nato, the U.S. and Baltic Sea Security" looks at how the NATO - U.S relationship affects the security of the Baltic Sea region, analysing their respective roles and the dynamics between NATO and the U.S. as different sovereign bodies, still inter-linked and dependent upon each other in providing security.

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Hong Kong's umbrella movement in search of self-determination

Research The UI Paper "Hong Kong's umbrella movement in search of self-determination" summarizes the core demands of the "Umbrella Movement" and examines its successes and failures. The world press mainly focused on the Umbrella Movement’s core demand for electoral reform of Hong Kong’s Chief Executive selection, while the demonstrations have to be seen in the broader context of the protesters’ desire for the city’s self-determination.

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Kaliningrad's difficult plight between Moscow and Europe

Research The UI Paper: "Kaliningrad's difficult plight between Moscow and Europe" examines the relationship of the Russian Kaliningrad exclave with the federal capital and with the neighbouring countries in three dimensions, the political, the economic and the military ones.

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European Union and the Geopolitics of Migration

Research The UI Paper "European Union and the Geopolitics of Migration" charts the challenges facing the EU in the field of migration, and suggests how Brussels might promote its own form of order.

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Myanmar’s civilian constitution process: challenges, opportunities, and international support for domestic transition

Research This report explores the constitution process currently being undertaken by Myanmar’s civilian governance actors. It outlines the formation of civilian governance structures and the constitution process, provides brief background on Myanmar’s previous constitutions and the reasons why constitutional reform is needed. The report assesses the potential for international support for the process and its political implications.

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Russia's non-military foreign policy instruments in its 'near abroad' in the Polish expert discourse

Research The article deals with Russia`s non-military foreign policy instruments in its ‘near abroad’, with a focus on the soft power policies, as seen by the Polish experts. Their view is of particular interest given Poland`s active part in the EU policies towards eastern neighbours, its historically embedded perception of a danger from the east and a trend of the Russian-Polish rapprochement in the recent years.

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Gender and Transition in Libya - Mapping women’s participation in post-conflict reconstruction

Research More than three years after the end of the Gaddafi regime, Libya is struggling to end a vicious circle of violence in order to take steps towards reconciliation and durable peace. This paper analyses the ongoing transitional period in Libya from a gender perspective.

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Commercial or Political Interests - Oil and Gas in the Russian Arctic

Research The Russian efforts of developing the natural resources in the Arctic region have intensified during the last years, and the leadership of the country is underlining the importance of speeding up the process of doing do. Putin has states that the current resources on land are depleting, and that a substitute needs to be found. But the Russian state companies Gazprom and Rosneft, the two companies who have been granted licenses to develop the Arctic shelf, are struggling against heavy bureaucracy and tight restrictions.

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Keeping alive: Understanding North Korea’s supply lines and the potential role of sanctions

Research Against all the odds, the Democratic People’s Republic of Korea (DPRK, North Korea) has survived two decades of acute crisis since the end of the Cold War. It has neither collapsed nor reformed itself, despite the dire state of its economy and the existence of extensive international sanctions.

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Råvaruexport, institutioner och ekonomisk tillväxt i en ny tid

Forskning Tidigare studier har indikerat ett negativt samband mellan en stor andel export av råvaror i relation till BNP, framför allt i länder med institutioner som betraktas som ”dåliga”. Forskare har talat om en ”råvarornas förbannelse”, det vill säga att länder med stora mängder råvaror skulle vara dömda till lägre tillväxt. Andra har talat om en ”villkorad förbannelse”, det vill säga att förbannelsen bara skulle gälla i länder med bristfälliga institutioner.

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The UN and Energy - An Institutional Gap or a Promise for the Future?

Research This paper addresses the United Nation’s role in global energy governance, aiming at giving an overview of how the UN has addressed energy issues over time, with a special emphasis on what the UN has governed in global energy governance.

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Military Capabilities and the Evolution of the Transatlantic Security Community

Research Europe’s strategic context is increasingly defined by declining defense resources. At the end of the Cold War the United States accounted for 50 percent of NATO defense spending with Europe and Canada picking up the other half. Now, this ratio had changed with the US meeting 75 percent and future trends indicating the US making up four-fifth of NATO expenditure.

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Civil Security and the European Union: A survey of European civil security systems and the role of the EU in building shared crisis management capacities

Research The security challenges that European states face – now and in the future – are daunting. Increased complexity of critical infrastructures, climate change, extraordinary technological innovation, international power shifts, cyber-attacks, energy shortages and environmental degradation create new and unforeseen challenges.

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Domestic Roots of Russian Foreign Policy. Rethinking Strategy.

Research The present issue of UI Occasional Papers includes three papers and one introductory note from all nine papers presented at the workshop Domestic Roots of Russian Foreign Policy: Re-Thinking Strategy.

UI Paper

Everyday insecurities: Expanding the security debate in Sweden

Global Commons at Risk? Exploring Risks and Dilemmas of Deep-Sea Mining

Advocating for further integration: Europarties in the 2024 European Parliament elections

Could the G7 climate club work? Lessons learned from climate coalitions

Local Initiatives: Factors in and Lessons for Sustainable Development

A Fatigued State: Exploring the Fragilities of the Afghan State

Algeria’s Hirak Movement: A Second National Liberation?

A Shared Understanding of India’s Climate Policy? Insights from a Survey of Indian Climate Experts

Sweden, the European Defence Fund and Permanent Structured Cooperation: Challenges Ahead for Third Party Participation

Human Rights and Climate Change: Are States Violating the Right to Life by Not Cutting Emissions?

Addressing Atrocity in Syria: New Challenges for Transitional Justice

Circles of EU-India Engagement: How Member States Cooperate with India on Global Issues

What Do Swedes Think about China? Insights from an Extensive Survey of Swedish Public Opinion of China

Tracing Intersections of COVID-19: Gender, Water and Armed Conflicts

Anatomy of the Iranian Economy

How to Progress Ukraine’s Western Integration as a Prelude to Accession to the EU and NATO

Reaching Climate Security - How Climate Change Moved up the Security Council Agenda

Higher Fences and Wider Nets? Global Trends in Bordering Policies

What to Make of the Huawei Debate? 5G Network Security and Technology Dependency in Europe

Diplomacy in a Changing World Order: The Role of Strategic Partnerships

The Partnership Shift: Analysing the European Union’s Strategic Engagement with India

Challenges to the Post-2003 Political Order in Iraq

From Cold War to Civil War: 75 Years of Russian-Syrian Relations

The EU as a Global Actor: A new conceptualisation four decades after ‘actorness’

Peace in Yemen

Myanmar in transition: China, conflict, and ceasefire economies in Kachin State

Facing the “new normal”: The strong and enduring Sino-Russian relationship and its implications for Europe

Russia in the Middle East

Marketization in North Korea: Scenarios for economic, political and social change

Working in the Same Direction? Civil Protection Cooperation in the Baltic Sea Region

Marketplace or military bastion? Kaliningrad between Brussels and Moscow

A New Cold War?

Order, integration and the development of European security and defence

Sweden’s approach to China’s Belt and Road Initiative

Is Russia a status quo power?

Ett förändrat säkerhetspolitiskt perspektiv

NATO, the U.S. and Baltic Sea Security

Hong Kong's umbrella movement in search of self-determination

Kaliningrad's difficult plight between Moscow and Europe

European Union and the Geopolitics of Migration

Myanmar’s civilian constitution process: challenges, opportunities, and international support for domestic transition

Russia's non-military foreign policy instruments in its 'near abroad' in the Polish expert discourse

Gender and Transition in Libya - Mapping women’s participation in post-conflict reconstruction

Commercial or Political Interests - Oil and Gas in the Russian Arctic

Keeping alive: Understanding North Korea’s supply lines and the potential role of sanctions

Råvaruexport, institutioner och ekonomisk tillväxt i en ny tid

The UN and Energy - An Institutional Gap or a Promise for the Future?

Military Capabilities and the Evolution of the Transatlantic Security Community

Civil Security and the European Union: A survey of European civil security systems and the role of the EU in building shared crisis management capacities

Domestic Roots of Russian Foreign Policy. Rethinking Strategy.

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