Syria After Assad: Competing Powers and the Struggle for Stability
After five decades of centralized rule, Assad has departed, leaving Syria at a crossroads filled with challenges and uncertainty. There was no smooth transition of power, instead competing power centers have emerged, each with its own interests and vision for the future.
Hay’at Tahrir al-Sham (HTS) consolidated its control over Idlib, taking advantage of the absence of a central authority and establishing a local administration with a unified political structure, enforcing a one-color government. In the northeast, the Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF) continue to govern the territories under their control, relying on their partnership with the international coalition despite facing security and economic challenges. Meanwhile, Turkey has strengthened its influence through allied factions, further complicating the Syrian landscape, where each region now operates under its own distinct political and security framework.
On the international level, Russia is attempting to maintain its strategic presence without Assad, while Iran’s influence has diminished significantly, reshaping the balance of power in the region. With no comprehensive political solution in sight, Syria has become a battleground for regional and international competition, with armed groups, foreign-backed militias, and shifting alliances shaping the country's trajectory. At the same time, some of these factions are trying to impose one party rule recently, reducing the likelihood of a political settlement that includes all sides.
The key question today is not just who controls the territory, but how a viable political future can be built. Can an agreement be reached among these forces, or will divisions continue to deepen instability, turning Syria into a prolonged battleground rather than a unified nation?
Speakers
Joseph Daher – Lecturer at the University of Lausanne, Switzerland, and author of Syria after the Uprisings: The Political Economy of State Resilience.
Sinem Adar – Associate at the Centre for Applied Turkey Studies, German Institute for International and Security Affairs.
Jerome Drevon – Analyst at International Crisis Group, specializing in Jihad in Modern Conflict.
The discussion will be moderated by Zamzam Khatab, Program Manager of the Middle East and North Africa Program at UI.